Here’s a concern:
When are housing prices too high? Like many other areas in the United States, the Washington, D.C. area has experienced a tremendous amount of price appreciation over the past few years. In my suburban neighborhood, I’ve witnessed housing prices double in 2 -3 years. I’ve been fortunate enough to have enjoyed some of this appreciation. Unfortunately, I’ve also passed up opportunities to buy homes over the last couple of years because I was concerned that the prices were simply too high and thought that the proverbial “bubble” would soon pop! To my surprise, the prices continued to climb. The buying frenzy continued as people opted for 40 years mortgages instead of 30 years and fixed interest rate loans shifted to adjustable rate loans with low “teaser rates”. People selected interest only loans to simply freeze the escalating prices of a humble abode. Some folks even resorted to negative amortization interest only loans! These people are not buying their house and their loan balance climbs during this introductory rate period (I’ve seen 1% interest only loans for the first year). With money being so cheap and a never ending supply of creative ways to keep your “monthly payment” down, I’ve wondered how far the prices can continue to climb?
After giving this some thought, I started to realize that there are a lot of moving parts associated with this question. For example, I recently received my new property tax assessment. Up 70%! Ouch! That’s going to hit my wallet every month. I realized that there’s yet another component applying downward price pressure. I’m sure that there are many, many factors that play a role in limiting the rate at which housing prices climb, but I’ve taken a few minutes to put some of the down in no particular order.
1) I’m thinking that the most significant price factor is the “supply” : “demand” ratio as with anything else.
2) Then there is the cost of money factor (interest rates). This is not independent of other factors. The cost of money is less relevant in a market that has “undervalued” homes. The designation of “undervalued” takes into consideration market salaries, cost of living, etc…
3) Then there is the gap between the haves and have-nots. This is probably best measured by the “sales price” : “rental income” ratio. If the prices of homes escalate to the too far beyond a positive cash flow scenario with a sizeable down payment (say 20%), then the supply of apartments dry up for the people who rent. This probably applies a positive price pressure on the rental market (from a land lord’s perspective), but as with home loans, the front ratio applies (~30% of your income on your housing) and limits the renter’s ability to pay rent at higher and higher prices. Renters are not subject to the fluctuating cost of money since their money comes from the earned income.
4) There’s another factor that plays a role in limiting or reducing housing prices in a market experiencing “irrational exuberance”. As I mentioned earlier, as property values increase so do there assessed tax values. This is something that is probably overlooked by most investors when they perform a cash flow analysis on an investment prospect. As I have experienced a 70%+ increase in assessed value, the landlord sees his/her cash flow diminishing by that much at the phase in rate. Here in Maryland, there is no phase in rate protection of 10% / year if it’s not your primary residence (“Homestead Credit”). That means the landlord essentially has a diminishing asset thanks to the somewhat artificial (or cyclical) appreciation of their property.
5) There’s the factor of locale “friendliness” to land-lording. This is tax rates and laws that assess additional operating costs to landlords. A couple examples that I’m heard of are Texas and Hawaii. Texas is a great place to earn income. No income tax. But the local governments assess significantly higher property taxes to make up the difference. In Texas you pay ~3% property tax annually compared to our 0.91 % here in suburbs of Washington, D.C.. Great for your renters, but 3% annual property tax adds a large contribution to expenses each month. In Hawaii, there is a higher tax rate assessed to non-primary residences. Additionally, there is a requirement (by law) that you have an on-island property manager to represent you at all times if you are an absentee property owner. This law was enacted to protect tenants by giving them a local point of contact for problem resolution. Finally - If you are in the vacation rental business, you’ll have be levied the ~11% “hotel tax” for vacation rentals in Hawaii. All of these different costs may or may not be present or may vary in amount from location to location, but all have an impact on cash flow (investment viability).
6) Location, Location, Location - People like to live in places where the weather is nice, the crime rate is low, and shopping is nearby. People would like their children to receive a decent education. My guess is you won’t Love Canal, New York in Money Magazine’s Best Place to Live anytime soon. Having nearby recreation is a plus too. Not too close to the airport and not too far from work. Perhaps location is really a variable that strongly influences demand (factor 1).
7) Lurking variables - I’m sure that there are many other factors involved price pressures (both positive and negative). Some unknowns may be insignificant contributors to the price pressure and others may be the gotchyas! But I can firmly grasp and quantify these key factors that I’ve spelled out.
My brother David recently asked me if I thought we could possibly identify what markets might be experiencing appreciation, which ones are going sideways, and which ones are poised to depreciate. I think that we can.
We can probably quantify key ratios and then couple that information with the expected trending of variables influencing each of these factors and empirically derive expectations for each market analyzed. There are always caveats to forecasting anything, but the analysis could provide some level of certainty with a probability attached to it.
Here are some questions you could ask when trying to identify housing markets before the steep ascent of prices:
1) Supply & Demand:
What is the current vacancy rates for rentals?
How many homes are on the market for sale?
What is the average DOM (days on market)?
What is the current unemployment rate?
What is the anticipated unemployment rate (any industry or other investment coming to town…?)?
etc…
2) Interest Rates:
What are they?
Where are they trending?
What is the “typical” current front-end ratio of owners?
What percentage of the front-end ratio is made up of interest payments?
3) Sales Price : Annual Rental Income Ratio:
What is the current ratio?
Does this ratio allow positive cash flow with a reasonable down payment (requires consideration of the other factors - i.e. cost of cash, tax rates, rental rates, etc…)?
What is the “typical” current front-end ratio of renters? This can tell us if this ratio has room to grow.
* Our area’s price:rent ratio seems to be in the low 20s. With the current cost of money, taxes, etc… the market can only support a ratio of ~15
4) Tax Values:
What is the current property tax assessment?
When are the properties scheduled to be assessed next?
What is the “typical” current front-end ratio of owners?
What percentage of the front-end ratio is made up of tax payments?
5) Locale Friendliness to Land-lording:
Are there additional taxes placed on homes that are not used as a primary residence (higher tax rates, other taxes, etc…)?
Are there legal requirements for absentee ownership (incurring property management fees)?
6) Desirability of Location:
Is the weather desirable?
Is there crime rate low?
Is the commute to major employers reasonable?
Is there recreation nearby?
Are the homes fairly modern (no functionally obsolete like a 4 bedroom one bath house)?
Is shopping close by?
Is the school system decent?
7) Lurking variables:
Is the location more susceptible to natural disasters?
Is the location more susceptible to man made disasters?
Is the location supported by a single point of failure (i.e. one major employer)?
Is there any planned development that might make the area less attractive to live (i.e. train tracks, highways, nuclear plants)?
Is there any previously existing environmental concerns (i.e. Love Canal, buried fuel tanks, etc…)?
Is there an Ancient Burial Ground underneath the location?
etc…
* Some of the ratio questions imply that you know the average household incomes for the market.
I think that this could be compressed by being more concise, but my day job gets in the way…
This is not an expert analysis by any means, but this is where my current knowledge base takes my thoughts.
Cheers,
Michael